Estonia and the euro爱沙尼亚和欧元(转载)

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Estonia and the euro
　　爱沙尼亚和欧元
　　
　　Long euros
　　欧元东扩 漫漫征程
　　
　　Estonia gets a step closer to adopting the single currency
　　爱沙尼亚单一货币制度又进一步
　　
　　May 12th 2010 | From The Economist online
　　
　　SURPRISES are Estonia’s stock in trade. Its return to the world map in 1991 after a 51-year absence startled outsiders. So did what came next: a fast-growing economy, based on flat taxes, free trade and a currency board. It confounded pessimists’ expectations by joining the European Union (in 2004) and NATO (in 2004). Now the country of 1.4m people is set to pull off another coup, gaining green lights from the European Commission and the European Central Bank for its bid to adopt the euro on January 1st 2011.
　　
　　爱沙尼亚债券交易引来惊奇一片。1991年前苏联解体后，爱沙尼亚才在51年后重新以独立国家身份出现在世界地图上，这在当时也是震惊外界的新闻。爱沙尼亚独立后，低税率下快速发展的经济，自由的贸易以及货币体系让世界再次感到惊讶。2004年加入欧共体及北大西洋公约组织后更是以实际表现打破了悲观者此前的预测。今天，拥有140万人口的爱沙尼亚再次整装待发，出价2011年1月1日起采用欧元，目标直指欧洲委员会及欧洲央行绿卡。
　　
　　Many thought that highly unlikely. Only two years ago a property bubble collapsed, rocking the banking system and sending GDP plunging by 14.1% in 2009 (see story). Doom-mongers said devaluation was inevitable. But they were wrong. Flexible wages and prices have helped the economy stabilise: unit labour costs fell by 7.5% in the final quarter of 2009. Exports were up by a sixth in the first quarter of 2010 and the central bank forecasts growth this year of 1%. Estonia easily meets the euro zone’s rules on public finances. Its gross debt in 2009 was only 7.2% of GDP, and the government deficit is 1.7%. The only real concern is whether inflation will stay low: in the past 12 months the average was negative, at -0.7% comfortably below the 1% target. But the ECB report called for “continued vigilance” on that.
　　
　　很多人对此并不看好。也就在两年前，爱沙尼亚房地产泡沫的破碎不仅震动了银行体系，也使其2009年的GDP暴跌14.1%。悲观者继而宣称货币贬值在所难免。然而他们又错了。薪金及物价的灵活变通再次稳定了经济：2009年第四季度，单位人工成本下降了7.5%。2001年第一季度出口增加6个百分点，央行预计今年增长率有望实现1%。这样以来，爱沙尼亚毫不费力便满足了欧元区对于公共财政的各项规则。唯一令人头痛的问题是能否保持低通胀率：去年12个月爱沙尼亚通胀率平均值为-0.7%，远在1%预期值之下。欧洲央行的报告却称要其“保持警惕”。
　　
　　The real problem for Estonia is political, not economic. Some euro zone members (France is often mentioned) think that allowing an obscure and volatile ex-communist economy to join a currency union that has too many dodgy members already should not be a priority. If Estonia is really so solid, why not wait a year to be sure?
　　
　　对于爱沙尼亚而言，真正的问题并不在经济，而在政治。一些欧元区国家（尤以法国为甚）认为已经藏危卧险的欧元区此时引入一个前途未卜的非共产主义经济体对他们来说并非上选。如果爱沙尼亚足够坚挺，那又何须这一年的确认期？
　　
　　Yet that would send a perverse message. Estonia is one of two countries in the whole EU that actually meets the common currency’s rules (Sweden being the other). All the rest (even those that use the euro) have gaily breached the deficit and debt limits. The grit shown by Estonian politicians and the public in shrinking spending, raising taxes, and cutting wages has left outsiders awestruck (see leader). Punishing Estonia which obeyed the rules, while bailing out Greece which has breached them flagrantly, would do little for the euro’s credibility with governments and investors alike.
　　
　　这甚至会使事情适得其反。爱沙尼亚是整个欧盟国家中真正符合普遍货币规则的2个国家之一（另一个是瑞典）。剩下的国家（甚至包括那些欧元国在内）已然不计后果地打破了赤字及债务限额。而爱沙尼亚的政治家及公众在收缩支出，提高税率及削减薪金方面所表现出的勇气和决心却令外界叹服不已（见社论）。如此煎熬“遵纪守法”的爱沙尼亚，而对肆意践踏规则的希腊却伸出援手，相似境遇的政府及投资者并不鲜见，但这对欧元的稳定却没有太多的好处。
　　
　　Estonia has two more hurdles to jump before it can humiliate the scoffers. An EU committee meets at the end of May, followed by a finance ministers’ summit in early June. Few think that France and other doubters will actually block its euro bid: a combination of persuasion and horse-trading will probably bring agreement. Then the decision will be irrevocable. That will give heart to Latvia and Lithuania too, who hope to join the euro later in the decade. Like Estonia, their currencies are pegged to the euro, so they have all the pain of a rigid monetary regime, but miss out on the lower borrowing costs and higher investment that the euro zone brings.
　　
　　想要让那些嘲笑的家伙认识到他们是多么的愚蠢，爱沙尼亚至少还要过两道坎儿，五月底的欧盟委员国会议和六月初的财长峰会。并没有几个人认为法国及其他持怀疑论的国家会真的阻碍爱沙尼亚：说服力及巧妙应对有望促成共识。但最终决议不会动摇。这也给未来十年有心跻身欧元区的拉脱维亚及立陶宛带去了勇气。和爱沙尼亚境遇相似，受欧元限制，僵直的货币体系使两国倍感压力。同时也无法享受欧元区相对低廉的借款费用及高额投资。
　　
　　The longer-term question is what Estonia focusses on next. On May 10th it passed another benchmark, joining the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a Paris-based rich-country thinktank—the first country from the former Soviet Union to do so. The hunt is on for a new national project. Estonia’s presidency of the EU in 2018 will coincide with the country’s 100th birthday. Finding something to surprise outsiders then is a pleasant challenge for the future.
　　
　　长远问题在于爱沙尼亚下一步的方向。5月10日该国通过一项新的基准，加入总部设在巴黎素有富国智囊团之称的经合组织。爱沙尼亚是第一个迈出此步的前苏联解体国。目的是为了寻求一项新的国家项目。2018年，爱沙尼亚将迎来她在欧共体理事会主席的任期，这一年也是爱沙尼亚100周年国庆。届时，如何带给外界新的惊喜成了爱沙尼亚未来几年间所面临的挑战。
　　
　　《经济学人》（The Economist ( http://www.economist.com ))仅同意ECO （www.ecocn.org）翻译其杂志内容，并未对上述翻译内容进行任何审阅查对。
　　
　　译者：湖心亭赏雪
　　
　　首发链接：http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/thread-34997-1-1.html